OMRI DAILY DIGEST
No. 233, 1 December 1995

HUNGARY TO SEND MILITARY TROOPS TO BOSNIA? The Alliance of Free
Democrats (SZDSZ), the junior coalition partner, is backing Hungary's
decision to let NATO troops transit the country and to use Hungarian
airspace and bases. It also approves of its offer to send technical or
health teams to Bosnia but is against sending armed units. Two
opposition parties--the Smallholders and the Democratic Forum--are also
opposed to that offer. The parliament last week approved letting NATO
troops be stationed on Hungarian territory and is still debating NATO's
request to dispatch Hungarian troops for non-combat missions (see OMRI
Daily Digest, 29 November 1995) Defense Minister Gyorgy Keleti said
Hungarian troops would carry out military tasks and would carry weapons.
-- Zsofia Szilagyi

NO AGREEMENT STILL ON HUNGARIAN INCOME TAX. Following weeks of debate,
the parliamentary caucuses of the two governing coalition parties are
still at odds over income tax brackets, Hungarian media reported.
Finance Minister Lajos Bokros insists that a 48% tax rate be levied on
annual gross earnings over 900,000 forints. He wants the government to
collect revenues totaling 480 billion forints. The SZDSZ has rejected
his proposal, saying such a high rate would encourage people to
participate in the black economy and would adversely affect large
families supported by one person with a high income. It is in favor of
44% as the highest rate. The Socialist argue that a greater burden
should be shouldered by those earning higher incomes. The parliament is
due to vote next week on the 1996 budget and new tax legislation. --
Zsofia Szilagyi

[As of 12:00 CET]

Compiled by Jan Cleave


OMRI ECONOMIC DIGEST
VOL. 1, NO. 5, 30 NOVEMBER 1995

HUNGARY'S NATIONAL BANK AND MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY OPTIMISTIC. The
National Bank of Hungary (MNB) plans to maintain the current crawling
peg devaluation of the forint --1.2% per month--during the first half of
1996, Magyar Hirlap reported on 23 November. However, it intends to
lower that rate during the second half of the year. The MNB predicts a
1996 current account deficit of less than $2 billion (expected to be $3
billion this year), GDP growth 1.5-2% higher than in 1995 (compared with
an expected 0.5-1.5% in 1995), investment 9-11% higher than this year,
and consumer price inflation of 19-21% (compared with about 30% this
year). Separately, the Ministry of Industry and Trade predicts a 7-10%
rise in exports and a 4-6% rise in imports in 1996. The improving trade
picture, which it attributes to productivity growth, economic
restructuring, and macroeconomic stabilization, is expected to result in
a trade deficit of only $2 billion by 1998 (down from almost $4 billion
in 1994). Real wages are expected to fall next year, but the downward
trend should end by 1997, with a modest rise in 1998. The ministry also
expects 5-6% growth in industrial production in 1996, up by about 1%
over 1995. -- Zsofia Szilagyi

Compiled by Peter Rutland and Michael Wyzan. Copy edited by Victor Gomez

HOUSEHOLD OWNERSHIP OF
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS

Television: European Russia-93%; Ukraine-90%; Belarus-93%; Estonia-95%;
Latvia-93%; Lithuania-97%; Poland-99%; Hungary*-98%; Czech Rep.-99%;
Slovakia-97%; Bulgaria-91%; Romania-86%.

Cable TV/Satellite Dish: European Russia-16%; Ukraine-7%; Belarus-15%;
Estonia-41%; Latvia-30%; Lithuania-20%; Poland-33%; Hungary*-56%; Czech
Rep.-28%; Slovakia-48%; Bulgaria-10%; Romania-27%.

FM Radio: European Russia-38%; Ukraine-35%; Belarus-40%; Estonia-75%;
Latvia-52%; Lithuania-61%; Poland-90%; Hungary*-79%; Czech Rep.-67%;
Slovakia-64%; Bulgaria-53%; Romania-44%.

Telephone: European Russia-42%; Ukraine-33%; Belarus-48%; Estonia-62%;
Latvia-71%; Lithuania-62%; Poland-45%; Hungary*-30%; Czech Rep.-38%;
Slovakia-46%; Bulgaria-65%; Romania-33%.

VCR: European Russia-15%; Ukraine-5%; Belarus-10%; Estonia-16%; Latvia-
16%; Lithuania-16%; Poland-33%; Hungary*-40%; Czech Rep.-35%; Slovakia-
24%; Bulgaria-29%; Romania-18%.

Personal Computer: European Russia-2%; Ukraine-2%; Belarus-4%; Estonia-
3%; Latvia-3%; Lithuania-2%; Poland-14%; Hungary*-10%; Czech Rep.-10%;
Slovakia-6%; Bulgaria-2%; Romania-2%.

*Hungarian data is Spring 1994

Compiled by Matthew Warshaw
OMRI Audience and Opinion Research, Washington, D.C.  tel. 202/457-6960,
fax: 457-6973    e-mail: 

Copyright (C) 1995 Open Media Research Institute, Inc. All rights
reserved.


OMRI ECONOMIC DIGEST SUPPLEMENT
Vol. 1, No. 5, 30 November 1995

HUNGARIAN FINANCE MINISTER TENDERS RESIGNATION. Lajos Bokros on 23
November offered his resignation after the Constitutional Court declared
another part of his austerity package unconstitutional, Hungarian media
reported. Bokros claimed that the court's recent rulings--including
annulling a government decision to raise mortgage interests--have
drastically reduced the government's scope for action in economic
policy. Prime Minister Gyula Horn refused to accept Bokros's resignation
while Bokros made it clear that his future moves will depend on whether
the government's powers are broadened. Meanwhile, at their annual
congress this weekend, the Socialists approved a policy statement
favoring economic stabilization and maintaining the present governing
coalition, thus strengthening Bokros in his position. -- Zsofia Szilagyi
(OMRI Daily Digest, 27 November 1995)

SLOVENIA TO BECOME MEMBER OF FREE TRADE ASSOCIATION. Ljubljana on 25
November signed an agreement, to go into effect on 1 January, whereby
Slovenia will become a member of the Central European Free Trade
Agreement. Slovenia joins the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and
Slovakia in CEFTA. Reuters quoted Slovenian Minister of Economic
Relations and Development Janko Dezelak as saying "we expect trade with
CEFTA members will significantly increase as a result of the agreement."
-- Stan Markotich (OMRI Daily Digest, 27 November 1995)

Compiled by Victor Gomez, Jan Cleave and Natalia Gurushina


Friday, 01 December1995
Volume 2, Issue 235

REGIONAL NEWS
-------------

        **VIOLATIONS REPORTED**
        Western Europen Union monitors have reported 422 violations of
        the UN embargo against rump Yugoslavia on the Danube River.
        That's out of six thousand checks made before the embargo was
        lifted last week.  The violations were registered on the
        Romanian, Bulgarian and Hungarian sections of the river over
        the past three years.  The WEU noted "exaggerated fuel
        consumption" by boats crossing the Danube into Yugoslavia,
        "expired or missing U.N. authorizations", and "stops in
        Serbian ports" since it deployed forces along the Danube to
        help monitor compliance with the embargo on Serbia in 1993.
        The WEU has reduced checks to a "very low level" and is now
        awaiting a decision by the governments of Romania, Bulgaria
        and Hungary on its future presence in the area.

        **LEAK CAUSES SHUTDOWN**
        Authorities in western Ukraine have stopped the flow of
        ethylene through a small pipeline to Hungary because of a
        leak.  The leak was discovered Wednesday.  Civil Defense
        Authority spokesman Oleh Bykov says it's caused minimal
        environmental damage and will probably be fixed by later this
        morning.   Bykov says hunters discovered the leak.   They
        noticed gas rising from the ground in Ukraine's western-most
        Zakarpattya region. It was identified as ethylene leaking from
        a buried pipeline originating at the Oriana chemical factory
        at Kalush, near Ivano-Frankivsk.  Bykov claims the "leak isn't
        creating much pollution because it just floats away with the
        air".  Bykov adds "there aren't any people living nearby, so
        no evacuations are planned."

BUSINESS NEWS
-------------

        **NOW, IN LIVING COLOR**
        Starting today, Romania gets its first nationwide private TV
        channel. Initially, Pro TV will reach only 35% of Romanians.
        But it should expand to reach 55% by the end of next year. Pro
        TV is the first serious challenge to the state monopoly on
        broadcasting.

        For most Romanians, television means RTV 1 and 2. These
        channels are part of a state broadcasting network under the
        personal control of President Ion Iliescu. Three private
        networks broadcast in large cities via local cable.  But so
        far, no private network has tried to go national via
        satellite.  Today, Pro TV takes the plunge thanks to a $20
        million investment from the Bermuda-based Central European
        Media Enterprise. CME already controls Nova TV in the Czech
        Republic, and has projects in Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine.
        CME expects to make a huge profit from its investment in Pro
        TV.  Romanians spent only $8 million on TV advertising in
        1994, but CME expects that to double every year for at least
        the next four years. At the moment, Romania has no law to
        cover satellite broadcasting.  The head of Pro TV, Adrian
        Sarbu, takes this as a sign that broadcasters are free to do
        what they like. But the two other private channels say the
        National Audio-Visual Council has warned them not to try
        satellite broadcasting. Will Romania's government try to keep
        Pro TV off the air? Council spokesman Mircea Baciu says "if
        people want to fly, we can't force them to take the train."

        David Wingrove, CET, Bucharest

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